The South West monsoon that sets in yearly between April and September, was a terrible let-down this year. Many could still remember the traumatic experience of load shedding or power cuts which prevailed during the period 1996-2009, when the catchment areas failed to receive sufficient rain. Even today, the hydro power generation has been restricted due to obvious reasons.

However, the continuous supply of power to four and a half million consumers has been made possible with the use of thermal power generation. For this costly exercise, the Ceylon Electricity Board, has to daily incur an amount of Rs.150 million, which in turn makes each consumer indebted to it by an amount of Rs.33 per day. In order to generate hydro power, some quarters of the CEB pray for the monsoon to come down.

On the other hand, to commence the barging operations of coal unloading to generate thermal power, some quarters of the CEB pray for the monsoon to end as early as possible. What a dilemma, “Mother Nature” is faced with! In the meantime, farmers in Rajarata and animals in national parks, affected by the prevailing drought are eagerly waiting for their share of inter monsoon rains to come down, without any delay.

In the distant past, the blowing of monsoon winds (south west and north west) had facilitated trade ships to sail away from Mantota and Gokanna ports and as a result it had been aptly called trade winds. The oceanic currents and the wind waves created by the monsoon pattern prevailed at the time had been the basis to trace the course of the oceanic silk route from China-India-Sri Lanka to Venice. The orderly wind patterns had been harmoniously in association with the Indian Ocean for a period over thousand years. However, it is now evident that adverse climatic changes have disturbed it, beyond redemption.

Having studied the significant role the wind pattern could play in architecture, it was Geoffrey Bawa who introduced his school of architecture as Monsoon Architecture. He said that as this part of the world did not experience winter, summer and autumn type seasonal changes, winds and rains associated with monsoons should be taken as the key for the building environment. As explained by the US strategist Robert D. Kaplan, in his latest book Monsoon (The Indian Ocean and the future of American Power), the Indian Ocean encompassing the Horn of Africa to Indonesia would demographically, economically and strategically be the hub or centre of gravity of the 21st century. Earlier in his book “Post American World,” it was the Newsweek editor Fareed Zakaria who had written on booming Indian Ocean countries and the Asia centric world in the 21st century.

The world map based on the Mercater projection is commonly used in the USA. In this map the western hemisphere is shown in its front and centre whilst the split up Indian Ocean region is relegated to its edges. During the second phase of the Industrial Revolution (1850 -1900 AD), the Indian Ocean which divides North America and Europe became the most important Ocean. With the emergence of Japan, Soviet Russia and China, subsequent to the first and the second world wars or European wars (1900-2000 AD), the Pacific came in to prominence as the most important ocean. However, according to the Robert Kaplan school of thought, the Indian Ocean would be the most important Ocean in the 21st century due to a variety of reasons, some of which need to be discussed.

The first and the foremost reason is the battle for acquisition of energy sources such as coal, gas, oil and shale, which we call fossil fuels. Prior to the advent of the fossil fuel era (before 1800), human labour and biomass was the source of the global economy. In 1700 AD, a spinster in Manchester-England, using a pedal driven spinning wheel had to put on two hundred labour hours to produce a pound of yarn. In 1820, with the introduction of the coal fired steam engine, only about one labour hour was needed to produce the same quantity of yarn. That was how the fossil fuel era came in to being to revolutionize the global economy. Before 1700 AD, the source of power relied on population and as a result, India and China immerged as economic giants since the population of these two countries were 165 million and 138 million, respectively. The population of England was then 8.6 million, whilst its GDP global share was only 3.0 per cent. However, the offshoots of Britain such as the USA, Canada and Australia together shared less than one per cent of the global economy. Contrary to what Karl Marx had envisaged, it was the extensive use of fossil fuel that had led the world to a new or Euro centric era in human history and not the human labour. In the 1980s eighty six per cent of the world economic activities were sourced by fossil fuels and due to the rapid injection of renewable energies in the 2000s, it was reduced to 80 per cent. It is a catastrophical fact to note that fossil fuel driven vehicles, vessels, power stations, equipment etc. manufactured or constructed within the next two or three decades (2030-2040) will be more than enough to exhaust all the known reserves of coal, oil, gas, and perhaps shale in the world. It is therefore obvious, that the battle for fossil fuel energy would take centre stage. The Middle East, Central Asia, East Africa, India, Russia, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia and Australia will be the main suppliers of fossil fuel and as such, its consumers would tend to camp around the Indian Ocean. In order to quench the emerging- super power - China”s unending thirst for energy, 70 per cent of the world coal supply and 60 percent of the world oil and gas supply will have to be moved along the sea routes of the Indian Ocean and also, apart from the Middle East, Indonesia may become the new energy hub of the Asia centric world.

The second reason is related to sea transportation or the seafaring business. Throughout world history, sea routes have been considered to be more important than land routes as the former facilitate the movements of comparatively larger volumes of goods, more economically. Today, despite being the jet and information age, 90 per cent of global commercial and two-third of all petroleum supplies are moved by sea. More importantly, 50 per cent world container traffic, 70 per cent of petroleum traffic and even more warships, powered by nuke energy, sail through Hormuz strait to Malacca via the Indian Ocean.

The third reason is the predictions of Asia becoming a global economic gravitational centre. In the 19th century, it was Euro centric and in the 20th century, it was North America centric. In the 21st century, it is going to be Asia centric, making way for China, India and Indonesia to emerge as economic giants with Japan, Korea and Asian tigers to continue as partners to them. In 2010, China surpassed Japan and became the World”s second largest economy (in market prices). According to 2010 statistics, the GDP of USA was 14.5 trillion US dollars with a 2.5 per cent growth rate and the GDP of China was 5.9 trillion US dollars with a 9.0 per cent growth rate. If the purchasing parity, (PP) which makes allowances for lower prices on trade services is taken in to consideration, it is very likely that the economy of China will overtake that of US by 2016. If market prices are taken in to consideration, even by most conservative estimates, the economy of China would be bigger than that of the USA in 2020 or 2024. If China invested 58 per cent of its GDP en massing 3.2 trillion US dollars as trade surplus, the USA would owe over 100 percent of its GDP as public debt. At present, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil (Brazil”s biggest trade partner is China), being the four most popular emerging markets, makeup for two-fifth of the global GDP (PP). If Asian markets keep growing, 3 per cent a year faster than the USA, they would share two-third of the global GDP by 2030, the USA and Europe will shrink from more than a third to less than a quarter by 2030. It was reported that the Republican front runner, Mit Romney had uttered “God created USA to lead the world and we (the USA) are a superior nation…” But, according to the data shown in the Economist magazine issue of Sept. 24, 2011, Mit Romney and his tea party day dreamers should consult a psychatric for proper treatment. It is a fact that the present era, in the post American world, belongs to Asia and it revolves in the Indian Ocean.

The fourth reason is related to global security. The wars the West is waging against terrorism are around the Indian Ocean. Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and perhaps its new target Pakistan are open to the Indian Ocean and also it has been observed that Islamic fundamentalism is spreading over from Somalia, Central Asia to Indonesia which constitutes a veritable networking map of Al Qaeda and other extremist Islamic groups. On the other hand, no other ocean is in need of strategic stability as much as the Indian Ocean needs, which is arguably the most nuclearized ocean on the globe. Among the nuke powers whose navies ply this ocean are the USA, the UK, France, Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Israel. It also has to be noted that the US warships that bomb Iraq and Afghanistan are often anchored in the Indian Ocean, risking the wrath of many other countries.

The fifth reason is that China is endeavoring to make the Indian Ocean its gateway to the globalized market. China does not want to be over dependent on the narrow and vulnerable Strait of Malacca as it cannot rule out the possibility of running in to problems with its movements of goods and energy supplies in the future. China is still haunted by the “Malacca dilemma”, the experience it has had, when the Portuguese captured and blocked the Malacca Strait in 1511, preventing Chinese trade to Venice. So, they need sea ports in Indian Ocean to transport oil, gas and other material to the heart of China. For this purpose they have built the sea port of Gwadar in the Arabian Sea (China could monitor ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz-Kaplan) and have developed another port in Pasni which is connected to Gwadar by a 75 km. long highway. China has already developed the Colombo port and has built Hambantota port. Building new ports in Chittagong and Myanmar will facilitate China to have a connecting sea link to Sudan, Iran, Middle East, Central Asia and Bay of Bengal and this strategic layout of ports, is aptly named “string of pearls” by the Chinese military (Kaplan). As was anticipated, the US and India tried to scuttle this plan of connecting gas and oil pipelines, highways, railways, sea ports and air ports which facilitates material flow to China and Asian markets. As at today, China consumes 50 per cent of global coal production, 55 per cent of steel and iron, 45 per cent of lead, 42 per cent of zinc, 40 per cent of aluminum, 40 per cent of copper and 10 per cent of oil and also, it has no foreseeable end to the increasing demand for these natural resources. So, it is obvious that China is desperately in need of a well laid network of ports.

The sixth reason is the environment factor. Due to adverse effects of global warming, Himalayan and Antarctic ice caps are beginning to melt down. Typhoons, cyclones, earth quakes, sea level rising, tsunamis, chaotic climate patterns are being experienced. The region associated with the Indian Ocean has the world”s largest population. It constitutes significant cultural diversities and rich bio diversity. Therefore, the human and natural resources of this region have to be safeguarded, not only by trying to mitigate the effects of natural calamities it is prone to, but also against the undesirable intrusions of outsiders, with hidden agenda.

In view of the foregoing reasons, the USA and the EU have been compelled to do away with their obsolete theories on Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. It is due to these shifting priorities that Obama, Cameron and Sarkozy are very much in the news these days, visiting India, Pakistan and Indonesia.

In this geopolitical scenario, what would be the position of Sri Lanka? According to Kaplan, Sri Lanka would be the ultimate register of the emerging trend in the Indian Ocean region. Wittingly or not, we had been the trend setters of the region. We introduced the government controlled Socialist economy (1956-1975), the Liberal open economy (1977-2005) and also a cooperate nationalist economy (from 2005). We are the epicentre of the Indian Ocean and the emerging economy in an atmosphere of much needed peace, achieved after defeating terrorism, whilst many other countries, including India are still preoccupied, fighting against terrorism with their own strategies. Due to geopolitical reasons, we were sandwiched during the cold war (1978-1989), that took place between the US and Soviet Russia-India. Presently, it is between China on one side and the US-India on the other side. If we lack the wisdom with which we should, politically and diplomatically handle the emerging sensitive situation, our future generation will blame us not only for missing a golden opportunity of making Sri Lanka, the “ wonder of Asia” but also for turning it to be the “ killing field of Asia”.